“When will it be done?” “How many items will I get in the next release?” “When will all of the items in the backlog be completed?” Those are some of the first questions that your customers will ask you once you start work for them. This hands-on workshop will provide you with the tools you need to answer those questions predictably. In this tutorial, attendees will learn what metrics are necessary for accurate forecasting, how to visualize those metrics in appropriate analytics, how to use those analytics make reliable forecasts and understand risk, and, finally, how to make meaningful interventions for overall process improvement.
"These sessions have opened possibilities and provided keys to open doors in my world! Practical, simple and exciting. Confidence! Thank you!"
"Mindblowing! Now I know, that there is more than "just" simulate data to forecast!"
"Great content, great trainers, great presented!"
"Loved the practical stats & methods as well as the wealth of informations through experiences brought by the other participants!"
Description / Topic Areas
- Flow Metrics: a deep dive into WIP, Cycle Time, and Throughput—including why you need to track them, how they are related through Little’s Law, and why they are important for forecasting
- Flow Analytics: an introduction to Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs), Scatterplots, Histograms, and other supporting charts—including a detailed discussion of what they are, how to generate them correctly, and how to utilize them for better predictability
- Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation: how to use flow metrics to answer “When will it be done?”—including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and statistical sampling methods for forecasting (no advanced mathematics required!)
- Quantifying Risk and Risk Management: how an understanding of risk is crucial to developing accurate forecasts—including how to quantify risk in the different analytics’ charts and how changing forecast inputs can help to develop an overall risk profile
- How to Get Started: how to immediately apply these techniques to your current project or process to achieve the results you are looking for—including what data to collect, how to mine your data, and how much data you need to begin
- An understanding of what Lean-Agile metrics are necessary for predictability
- An ability to make accurate forecasts for single items including how to forecast when an individual story, epic, or feature will be done
- An ability to make accurate forecasts for multiple items including how to know when all items remaining in a backlog will be done or an ability to project how many items will be completed by a given release date and the risks associated with each
- An understanding of how to use flow metrics and analytics to achieve a stable process including an understanding of why a stable process is necessary for accurate forecasting
- What is Predictability?
- What data should we collect?
- Forecasts for Single Items Using Cycle Time
- What is Cycle Time and Why It Is Important
- Traditional Single Item Forecasting Techniques and Why They Fail
- Cycle Time Scatterplots and Forecasting
- How to Quantify Single Item Forecast Risk (Percentiles and SLAs)
- Improving Your Single Item Forecasts
- Forecasts for Multiple Items Using Throughput and Monte Carlo Simulation
- What is Throughput and Why It Is Important
- Traditional Multiple Item Forecasting Techniques and Why They Fail
- Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistical Sampling Methods
- How to Answer “How Many Items by X date?”
- How to Answer “How Long to Complete Y Number of Items?”
- How to Quantify Multiple Item Forecast Risk
- Improving Your Multiple Item Forecasts
- How to Know If You Can Trust Your Forecasts
- Work in Progress and Little’s Law
- Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs)
- CFDs: Little’s Law and System Stability (Conservation of Flow and Flow Debt)
- How to Get Started o Topics in Data Mining
- Things to Watch Out For • Parking Lot / Q & A / Wrap Up
Training Location: Vienna, AT
Josefstädter Strasse 10-12
1080 Vienna, Austria
Schedule: start time 9:00am - end time 5:00pm
Trainer: Daniel Vacanti
In 2007, he helped to develop the Kanban Method for knowledge work. He managed the world’s first project implementation of Kanban that year, and has been conducting Kanban training, coaching, and consulting ever since. In 2011 he founded ActionableAgileTM (previously Corporate Kanban) which provides industry-leading predictive analytics tools and services to any organization that utilizes Lean-Agile practices. In 2015 he published his book “Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability” that is the definitive guide to flow-based metrics and analytics.
Daniel holds a Masters in Business Administration and regularly teaches a class on lean principles for software management at the University of California Berkeley.
Audience: Anyone who has been asked to answer “When Will It Be Done?”
- Anyone who has been asked to answer “When Will It Be Done?” or otherwise had to give an estimate for a User Story, Epic, Feature, Project, and/or Release
- Executives, managers, or team members who want better understanding and transparency into the health and performance of their process
- Anyone who currently uses Agile or Lean Methodologies and is interested in how to improve the overall predictability and efficiency of their current practices
Take 3 pay 2!
€ 660,- excl. VAT.
Price per participant for 3 bookings from one organisation
€ 990,- excl. VAT.
Combine “Deep Dive into Metrics” on Sep 29 with any other public LEANability training and save €300!
Get 3 days of training for €2480 excl.Vat instead of €1790+€990=€2780.
*We recommend the participation of several people form your organisation to faciliate joint reflection on the internal implementation of Kanban in your company and to facilitate transfer of what has been learned. This increases the overall impact and the sustainability of the training and thus the value of your investment.